The Shift to Deterministic Forestry

Jacob Hjalmarsson 20 November, 2025

The Shift to Deterministic Forestry

Strategic Wood Security through Digital Root Standing & AI-Driven Inventory

Produced by: Arboair

Date: November 2025

Topic: Digital Transformation in Final Felling & Inventory

Executive Summary

The European forestry industry stands at a critical juncture. After decades of relying on stochastic models, statistical extrapolations, and manual sampling, the sector is facing an irreversible paradigm shift toward deterministic, data-driven methods. This whitepaper validates the transition from manual "Digital Root Standing" (Digital Rotstämpling) to AI-powered analysis, demonstrating how modern photogrammetry offers a commercially superior alternative to traditional methods.

Current manual inventory methods suffer from error margins of 20–40% regarding volume. In an era of tight margins and strict regulatory requirements (EUDR), this level of uncertainty is no longer sustainable. Arboair’s solution, utilizing advanced AI algorithms on drone-captured RGB data, shifts this reality from estimation to precision.

Key Findings in this Report:

  • Precision Leap: Validation data confirms a shift from ~50% sortment precision in manual methods to up to 90% with Arboair’s digital analysis.
  • Operational Efficiency: Planning time per tract is reduced by roughly 70%, freeing up critical resources.
  • Economic Impact: By optimizing sortment outcome (moving just 1-2% of volume from pulp to timber), forest owners see immediate ROI, with industry-wide potential estimated at €5-10 billion annually across the EU.

This report serves as a technical and economic validation of Arboair’s technology, designed for decision-makers seeking to secure wood supply, ensure compliance, and maximize yield.

1. The Cost of Uncertainty in the Analog Era

Traditional forest inventory is inherently "stochastic." It relies on sampling 1-5% of a forest area and assuming these sample plots perfectly represent the biological diversity of the entire stand. In reality, nature is rarely uniform. This methodology introduces systematic errors that propagate through the entire supply chain.

The "Hidden" Losses

When a harvester arrives at a site with inaccurate data, logistics crumble. Transport trucks are either overbooked (wasted fuel) or underutilized (wasted capacity). More critically, without precise data on individual tree geometry before harvesting, the bucking (aptering) process is reactive rather than proactive.

"Making multi-million Euro decisions based on data with a 40% error margin is a risk profile that few other modern industries would accept."


Furthermore, the administrative burden is increasing. The EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) demands 100% traceability and geolocation. Manual methods, costing approximately $15-30 per m³ for due diligence, are becoming prohibitively expensive compared to digital alternatives (for a fraction of the cost).

2. The Solution: Arboair Digital Root Standing

Arboair has developed a proprietary software ecosystem that transforms standard drone imagery into high-precision forest intelligence. Unlike heavy LiDAR systems that require expensive manned aircraft or heavy-lift drones, Arboair utilizes RGB Photogrammetry combined with advanced AI.



Technical Core

The technology creates a "Digital Twin" of the forest stand. Our AI models identify and classify individual trees in collected data, achieving high accuracy. Beyond simple counting, the models extract:

  • DBH (Diameter at Breast Height) via trained AI models.
  • Tree Height and Volume calculation.
  • Species Identification (Pine, Spruce, Deciduous) using trained AI models.
  • Timber Quality potential and sortiments (e.g., identifying stress or damage invisible to LiDAR).

Why Photogrammetry?

While LiDAR has historically been the "gold standard" for ground models, modern analysis proves that RGB photogrammetry offers equivalent operational precision for final felling at a fraction of the cost (up to 70% lower data collection costs). By combining drone canopy data with existing national Digital Terrain Models (DTM), Arboair achieves the "best of both worlds": high-resolution spectral data and accurate height readings.

3. Quality & Value Proof: The Customer Validation

The true test of any technology is field validation. In collaboration with a customer, Arboair’s technology was rigorously tested across multiple tracts, comparing digital analysis against Harvester Production Reports (HPR)—the "absolute truth" of what was cut.

Volume & Sortment Precision

The results demonstrate a radical improvement over traditional subjective estimation. Where manual visual estimation often results in sortment precision around 50%, the digital analysis achieved levels up to 90%.

Data confirms that over 80% of the analyzed tracts fell within ±15% of the total sortiment volumes, with the absolute mean error for volume hovering around below 10%. For the critical DBH (Diameter) measurement, which dictates the price of the log, the error margin was reduced to a bit over ±2cm on individual trees.


Table 1: Performance Comparison (Manual vs. Digital)

4. Industry Impact Analysis

Moving beyond technical accuracy, the economic implications of implementing Arboair’s solution are profound. The "Consolidated Deep Dive Analysis" (Djuplodsanalys) highlights that the shift to digital is not just about saving time—it is about unlocking trapped value.

The "Billion Euro" Opportunity

By moving from Stochastic to Deterministic forestry, we eliminate the risk premiums currently built into timber prices due to uncertainty. The value potential for the European market is estimated at €5.0 - 10.1 billion annually.

Return on Investment (ROI)

The ROI is driven by three main levers:

  1. Harvesting & Transport (2-3% Efficiency Gain): Accurate location and volume data reduce machine downtime and eliminate "ghost runs" (bomkörningar).
  2. Sortment Optimization (The "Golden Percent"): Moving just 1-2% of volume from "Pulp" (Massa) to "Timber" (Timmer) creates massive leverage. The price spread is significant (approx. 300-670 SEK/m³ diff).
  3. Operational Speed: Reducing inventory cycles from months to weeks allows owners to strike when market prices are optimal.
Figure 2: Annual Value Potential per Million m³sk (SEK)

Environmental & Regulatory Impact

Arboair’s solution also acts as a compliance shield. With EUDR requirements, the ability to provide visual, geolocated proof (polygons) of the forest state prior to felling is mandatory. Digital inventory reduces the risk of fines (up to 4% of turnover) and dramatically lowers the cost of compliance.
Furthermore, by optimizing the bucking process digitally, we ensure that fewer trees are harvested to meet the same industry demand—a direct contribution to sustainable forestry.

5. Conclusion & The Way Forward

The data is clear: The era of estimating forest value is over. The era of measuring it has begun.
Arboair’s Digital Root Standing solution offers a verified, scalable, and economically superior alternative to traditional methods. By leveraging drone photogrammetry and AI, the forest industry can reduce operational costs by 70%, increase sortment precision to 90%, and secure millions in formerly lost revenue.


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References & Source Data

  • Arboair Slutavverkningsdata: Technical specifications and product capabilities.
  • Validering sortiment (2025): Field data, volume comparisons, and sortment precision metrics.
  • Drönarbilder som alternativ till LiDAR-skogsbruk: Industry impact analysis, ROI calculations, and EUDR implications.